$1 Billion Prize Offered by Kalshi for Perfect March Madness Bracket
The prediction market platform Kalshi has announced a high-stakes competition tied to the NCAA’s March Madness tournament, offering $1 billion to anyone who can make a perfect bracket.
That means accurately predicting the outcome of all 63 games across the men’s and women’s competitions, which has incredibly low odds. If each game were treated as a 50/50 coin toss, the chance of a perfect bracket would be approximately 1 in 9.2 quintillion, so achieving this is extremely unlikely, and no publicly verified example has been recorded to date.
In a blog post announcing the contest, Kalshi acknowledged the odds, saying most participants “probably won’t win this contest” and describing it as an opportunity to give people “a lesson in probability”.
The company continued, “To put this into perspective, you are more likely to be struck by lightning than create the perfect bracket. Your odds are roughly equivalent to searching for one grain of sand from all of Earth’s beaches and deserts…and getting it right on the first try.”
Still, Kalshi has outlined alternative rewards if no one achieves the perfect bracket. The operator will award $1 million to the person with the next-best scoring bracket. Additionally, two education non-profits, iMentor and the NBA’s Devin Booker’s charity, Starting Five, will each be awarded $500,000 as part of the contest.
This competition comes at a time when betting activity surrounding March Madness continues to grow. According to the American Gaming Association, total wagers for this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s basketball games are expected to exceed $3.3 billion.
- Kalshi is offering a $1 billion prize for anyone who predicts all 63 games correctly.
- If no perfect bracket is achieved, the prediction market platform will award $1 million to the next-best scorer.
- Kalshi will also award two charities, iMentor and Starting Five, $500,000 each.
